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Tasks Menu
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Task 1- Observations/Winds Acquisition of in-situ, airborne and satellite wind, wave, and other environmental data. Analysis of all data for assimilation/ingestion into models. Processing of G PS sonde data from hurricane flights and SAR backscatter fields; scatterometer and buoy winds for larger scale context. Task 2- Wind Modeling Generation of detailed structure of hurricane model wind fields from airborne wind field snapshots for initialization; detailed structure of wind speed variability from SAR embedded in larger scale scatterometer/passive microwave vector winds. Task 3- Wave Modeling Wave forecast with WAM model. Using dynamically changing grid nesting along hurricane track projections, locally generated windsea from tropical cyclone and swell will be propagated close to coast for input into high-resolution ray model and coupling with storm surge model. Ray model will transform wave field over uneven bathymetry and provide wave-setup and radiation stress component to storm surge model as well for estimation of "erosion potential and possible "wave damage". Task 4- Surge Modeling Storm surge prediction with ADCIRC model based on a finite element grid. This grid can resolve small details in coastline geometry, as well as inlets and bayous and wetting/drying of barrier islands, etc. Components included in the prediction are wind fields from Task 2, wave-setup and radiation stresses from Task 3 pressure fields derived from Task 2 and tidal information. Task 5- Interfaces/Coupling Several interfaces and couplings must be tested and evaluated. Included are a sea-state dependent drag coefficient to account for the correct momentum transfer (wind stress) during high wind events; wave refraction by surge-induced currents and tides; a wave-dependent bottom friction factor for surge to account for ripple generation and sediment movement; incorporation of wave- setup/setdown and radiation stress effects on surge modeling; and inclusion of rainfall especially near the coast. Task 6- Output/Graphlcal Display Continuous development of suitable output parameters and fields and appropriate graphical display on the Internet. These output fields should be interactive allowing to view old information and temporal evolution. Output parameters will be both deterministic and probabilistic. Different scenarios such as intensification and decay of storm system as well as different tracks can be assessed for impact during landfall and coastal regions. Task 7- Computational Aspects In conjunction with IBM, the model suite will be streamlined to improve runtime performance using a high degree of parallelization, sharing of files and effective I/O procedures. Task 8- Archive/Database Acquisition of bathymetry, tidal information, coastline id sediment type data bases. Archiving of simulated historical hurricane cases representing different characteristics of tropical cyclones such as rapid intensification, fast and slow forward speeds, etc. Task 9- Operational Aspect Scheduling of model run sequence, data ingestion, output availability, quality control, performance statistics. Task 10- Evaluation/Assessment Detailed evaluation and performance assessment of each simulated tropical cyclone during all hurricane seasons. Determination of error statistics. Recommendation and modifications to modeling and interface components of forecasting system. All users will contribute to this evaluation process. Task 11-Outreach/Education All information will be made available to the National Hurricane Center. When appropriate output will also be given to local and national television station, state and federal emergency planners for further dissemination to public. http://storms.nos.noaa.gov/index.html |
